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Huzurabad by-election battle turned into a catalyst test in Telangana politics. TRS has been witnessing continuous setbacks from BJP from the 2019 MP elections, Dubbak Bypoll & GHMC elections results. If BJP recreates the magic, then it will raise the morale and confidence of the party cadre resulting in the likely elevation of the BJP into the chief opposition party. But, BJP performance in districts like Warangal, Khammam, Nalgonda, and Mahabubnagar district is not good enough. We need to remember, the same thing happened in the 2019 parliament elections resulting in 7 mp seats to BJP & Congress. BJP’s pathetic performance in the Nagarjuna Sagar poll is a perfect instance. Congress has a stronghold over BJP in those areas.
BJP elevation will not cause a triangular fight across the state, due to Congress & BJP’s limitations, causing much damage to TRS. Real threats of the TRS party are anti-incumbency and swing-voters between BJP and Congress.
- BJP vote share is recorded at 52%. It got 16% in the 2019 MP elections.
- TRS secured 59% & 48% in 2018 Assembly & 2019 MP Elections. It lost massive vote share.
- INC got less than a 2% vote share. It got 35% in 2018 assembly elections and 30% in 2019 MP elections. Congress witnessed a massive loss. This verdict triggered pandora’s box in state congress party leaders. They started blaming each other.
- Out of 22 rounds, TRS got a bare margin lead in just two rounds.
- Based on the ground reports, it is clear that the TRS party Dalitha Bandhu scheme caused much displeasure among OBC sections.
- Silaveru Srikanth from Praja Ekta Party (08) got more postal votes than the Congress party (02) out of 729 polled votes, causing much embarrassment to Congress Party Cadre.
- TRS failed in the creation of a narrative against Etela & BJP. People developed much sympathy for Etela Rajender. Rajender’s entry into BJP caused a combined synergistic force which helped in winning the election.
Huzurabad By Poll – Party Wise Votes & Share
|S.N.||Candidate||Party||EVM Votes||Postal Votes||Total Votes||% of Votes|
|1||EATALA RAJENDER||Bharatiya Janata Party||106780||242||107022||51.96|
|2||GELLU SRINIVAS YADAV||Telangana Rashtra Samithi||82712||455||83167||40.38|
|3||BALMOOR VENKAT NARSING RAO||Indian National Congress||3012||2||3014||1.46|
|4||ALI MANSOOR MOHAMMED||Anna YSR Congress Party||122||1||123||0.06|
|5||KANNAM SURESH KUMAR||Jai Swaraj Party||136||0||136||0.07|
|6||KARRA RAJIREDDY||Marxist Communist Party of India (United)||235||0||235||0.11|
|7||KESHETTI VIJAY KUMAR||Yuva Taram Party||77||0||77||0.04|
|8||DEVUNOORI SRINIVASU||Dalita Bahujana Party||122||0||122||0.06|
|9||LINGIDI VENKATESWARLU||Prajavani Party||580||2||582||0.28|
|10||SILIVERU SRIKANTH||Praja Ektha Party||1913||8||1921||0.93|
|13||ADLA JOGI REDDY||Independent||278||0||278||0.13|
|15||KOTA. SHYAM KUMAR||Independent||966||1||967||0.47|
|19||CHALIKA CHANDRA SEKHAR||Independent||83||0||83||0.04|
|23||BUTTEMGARI MADHAVA REDDY||Independent||36||0||36||0.02|
|26||RAMESH BABU SHANIGARAPU||Independent||130||3||133||0.06|
|28||LINGAMPELLI SRINIVAS REDDY||Independent||79||1||80||0.04|
|29||VIKRAM REDDY VEMULAA||Independent||390||2||392||0.19|
|30||C.V. SUBBA REDDY||Independent||488||0||488||0.24|
|31||NOTA||None of the Above||1036||0||1036||0.5|
- Rajender Won Against Gellu Srinivas.
- Rajender’s total lead is 23,865 votes after 22 rounds.
- Rajender got the lead of 1474 votes in the twentieth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 3047 votes in the nineteenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1876 votes in the eighteenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1423 votes in the seventeenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1712 votes in the sixteenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 2149 votes in the fifteenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1046 votes in the fourteenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1865 votes in the thirteenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1217 votes in the twelfth round.
- Gellu Srinivas Yadav got the lead of 385 votes in eleventh round.
- Rajender got the lead of 526 votes in the tenth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1835 votes in the ninth round.
- Gellu Srinivas Yadav got the lead of 162 votes in the eighth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 246 votes in the seventh round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1017 votes in the sixth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 344 votes in the fifth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 562 votes in the fourth round.
- Rajender got the lead of 1695 votes in the third round.
- Rajender got the lead of 911 votes in the third round.
- Rajender got the lea of 193 votes in the second round.
- Rajender got 166 votes lead in the first round. Rajender secured 4610, Srinivas Yadav got 4444 & Congress got 119 votes.
- Gellu Srinivas Yadav(TRS) secured 455 votes while Etela Rajender(BJP) managed 242 votes in postal ballots. Congress got mere 2 votes. We need to remember that, TRS got the lead in Dubbak postal ballots. Usually, the Leading party gets the lead in postal ballots.
- Postal ballot-counting just started. The postal ballot result will be out at 08:30 am.
- The first-round result will be out at 09:30 am.
- Counting will be started from 08 am on November 2nd.
- Postal ballots will be counted in the first round. There are 753 postal votes are polled.
- There are 22 rounds, and each round constitutes 14 EVMs in 14 Tables.
- All the survey agencies gave a clear mandate to Etela Rajender. But TRS circles believe that they can be saved with a margin of 1000-2000 votes.
Huzurabad Exit Poll Analysis
- Etela Rajender from BJP has a clear edge against Gellu Srinivas from TRS in Huzurabad.
- Based on our inputs from ground level, Etela Rajender is going to win with a 10,000 majority (+ or – 2000)
- Expected Vote share: TRS 43-45% BJP 47-50% Congress 3 – 5%
- The voting pattern is clearly split among different sections based on caste and religion.
- Major Dalit vote share went to TRS and special thanks to Dalit Bandhu.
- Dalit Bandhu has caused displeasure among the BC vote bank. The majority of BC (specially munnuru kaapu, padma shali & mudiraj) vote share went to BJP.
- Reddies account for 20-22k voters in the constituency. The majority of people preferred BJP.
- BJP is leading in Huzurabad, Jammikunta & Veenavanka mandals while TRS is leading in Kamalapur and Illanthakunta mandals.
- Gellu Srinivas’s candidature is misfired from TRS. He could not compete with the charisma of Rajender. Another important thing is, Rajender has a long-term association with the constituency and people.
- TRS party used all its arms and weapons. It went to the extreme by announcing the Dalit Bandhu across the state, which caused many debates about the practical implementation and availability of funds in the state government. TRS party succeeded in attracting Dalit vote bank in the constituency but at the cost of BC vote bank. Now, we need to see whether TRS commits with the Dalit Bandhu scheme across the state or not.
- BJP campaigns were very planned and strategic. Leaders from other districts toured in the constituency. Eatela Rajender has started the campaign right from the day he joined the BJP. Kishan Reddy, Bandi Sanjay, D Aravind, Raghunandan, and Vijaya Shanthi campaigned extensively across all the villages in the constituency. RSS cadre also joined the campaign, which accelerated the campaign at the grass-root level.
- Major survey agencies gave a clear mandate to Etela Rajender. If this happens, the Huzurabad verdict will make a great impact in the combined Karimnagar, Nizamabad & Adilabad districts.
- Here is the list of political survey agencies’ predictions.
Survey Agency Predicting Party Margin Political Laboratory BJP 23000-24000 Public Pulse BJP 9000-11000 Naaganna Survey TRS or Close Fight 1000-3000 Political Metrics BJP 8000-12000 HMR Research BJP 15000 Mission Chanakya BJP 25000-30000 Atma Sakshi BJP 20,000
Huzurabad Polling Updates
- Voting turnout is 86% by 07 pm.
- As of 10 am, the polling percentage is still below 20%.
- As of 09 am, the voting turnout is 10%.
- Minor scufflings between BJP and TRS are reporting across the constituency.
- Polling started peacefully since morning 07:00 am.
- There are 306 polling stations in the Huzurabad assembly constituency.
Huzurabad Election Updates
- We will publish complete inputs and other details on October 30th Evening. Though we have complete details on ongoing trends and voting patterns, due to the election commission guidelines, we are not revealing.
- Media news reports that money is extensively circulating among voters by the major political parties. Some people even staged dharnas on the roads claiming that they did not receive the money.
- Election campaigns by major political parties ended formally on 27th October, forty-eight hours before the election.
- BJP Campaign Management is very strategic and well planned than TRS. Kishan Reddy, Bandi Sanjay & Vijaya Shanthi toured extensively in the final phase of the election. Exclusive ground reports claim that the people response rate is very high in the BJP campaigns.
- TRS Party staged volunteers from other districts and state social media core teams in Huzurabad. A real-time campaign war happened between TRS and BJP on social media by posing counters and counterattacks.
- Election Commission has instructed the Telangana State government to stop the Dalitu Bandhu activities due to the election code in Huzurabad.
- Congress party has finalized National Student Union of India (NSUI) State president Balmoori Venkat Narsing Rao as Contestant.
- The Huzurabad by-election schedule has been announced by the Election Commission of India. The election polling will be held on October 30, 2021.
- Gellu Srinivas Yadav is officially declared as a TRS contestant for the Huzurabad by-election.
- Telangana chief minister KCR invited Huzurabad Dalit representatives to Hyderabad for taking participate in a Dalit Bandhu preparatory meeting on July 26th.
- Etela Rajender is doing aggressive campaigns by visiting the crucial pockets of the Huzurabad assembly constituency.
- Congress party is not yet announced the party candidate.
- Kaushik Reddy has formally joined the TRS party on July 21st at TRS Bhavan in the presence of CM KCR and Harish rao. He is likely to get a TRS party ticket for the Huzurabad assembly constituency elections.
- Kaushik Reddy has tendered his resignation from the Congress party after video footages (in which he had a call with the TRS party worker) surfaced on social media. Congress party sought an explanation from Kaushik Reddy. Kaushik Reddy is likely to join TRS.
- Famous TV Presenter Theenmar Mallanna has predicted the following vote share in Huzurabad By Election as of July 18th 2021.
1) Etela Rajender – 55% 2) TRS – 33% 3) Congress – 12%
- Telangana BJP state president Bandi Sanjay has announced a padayatra which is likely to be started from Bhagyalaxmi temple and ends at Huzurabad. This explains, how BJP is taking Huzurabad as prestigious.
- Huzurabad by-election notification is likely to be issued anytime after July 15th.
- Telangana Legislative Assembly speaker formally approved the resignation of Etela Rajender.
- As of June 17th, it is unclear when the by-elections will be held.
- Kaushik Reddy is likely to re-contest representing Indian National Congress Party.
Karimnagar MP/Parliament Elections 2019 – Huzurabad Assembly Segment Voting Pattern
|Candidate / Party||Votes||Percentage|
|Ponnam Prabhakar / Congress||46,689||29.56|
|Bandi Sanjay / BJP||26,176||16.57|
|Vindo Kumar / TRS||77.211||48.89|
Huzurabad Assembly Election Results
|INC||Kethiri Sudarshan Reddy||38,278||24.68%|
|TDP||Kashyap Reddy Muddasani||15,642||10.08%|
|TDP||Muddasani Damodar Reddy||13,799|
|INC||V Krishna Mohan Rao||41,717||28.54%|
|Praja Rajyam||Pingili Venkateshwar Reddy||24,785||16.96%|
By Polls, 2008
|TRS||V. Lakshmikantha Rao||53,547|
|TRS||V. Lakshmikantha Rao||81,121|
|TDP||Enugala Peddi Reddy||36,451|
Huzurabad By-Elections – Latest News & Updates