psephology Archives - Kalyan Chandra

Two-fold anti-incumbency, which refers to voter dissatisfaction with both the ruling party and the local Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA), can have particularly severe consequences in Indian elections. Here's how it plays out: Voter Discontent: When voters are dissatisfied with both the ruling party and the local MLA, it indicates widespread discontent. This dual dissatisfaction can lead to a more pronounced desire for change among the electorate. Consolidation of Opposition Votes: Anti-incumbency sentiment often leads to a consolidation of votes in favor of opposition candidates. Voters who are unhappy with the current party and MLA are likely to rally behind the strongest alternative, thereby amplifying the chances of the opposition winning. Reduced Turnout for the Incumbent: Supporters of the ruling party and the current MLA may become demotivated to vote if they perceive their representatives as ineffective or corrupt. This reduced voter turnout from the incumbent’s base can further tilt the balance in favor of the opposition. Campaign Dynamics: Opposition parties and candidates can capitalize on the dual anti-incumbency sentiment by highlighting the failures of both the ruling party and the MLA. This can create a powerful narrative that resonates with voters who are looking for accountability and change. Strategic Voting: In a scenario where both the party and MLA face anti-incumbency, strategic voting becomes more common. Voters may prioritize voting out the incumbent over other considerations, leading to a unified front against the current government and representative. Polarized Electorate: The electorate can become highly polarized in such situations, with a clear divide between those who support the status quo and those who want change. This polarization can lead to a more decisive election outcome against the incumbents. Impact on Marginal Seats: In closely contested or marginal constituencies, two-fold anti-incumbency can have an even more pronounced effect. The swing in voter sentiment can lead to significant losses for the ruling party, potentially tipping the balance of power in the legislature. In summary, two-fold anti-incumbency towards both the ruling party and the local MLA can create a perfect storm that significantly enhances the chances of the opposition, leading to bitter results for the incumbents in Indian elections. Popular Instances 1. Delhi Assembly Elections (2013 and 2015) Context: The Congress party was in power in Delhi for 15 years, with Sheila Dikshit serving as the Chief Minister. By 2013, there was widespread dissatisfaction due to various issues like corruption (Commonwealth Games scam), rising prices, and infrastructure problems. Outcome: In the 2013 elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, emerged as a significant force, capitalizing on the anti-incumbency sentiment against both the Congress party and local MLAs. The Congress party was reduced to just 8 seats in a 70-member assembly, while AAP won 28 seats. In the 2015 elections, this anti-incumbency sentiment further consolidated, and AAP won a staggering 67 out of 70 seats, with the Congress failing to win even a single seat. Analysis: The dual anti-incumbency against both the ruling party and local MLAs resulted in a significant voter shift towards AAP, showcasing a demand for change and accountability. 2. Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections (2012) Context: The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by Mayawati, faced significant anti-incumbency due to allegations of corruption, poor governance, and law and order issues. Local MLAs from the ruling BSP were also seen as ineffective and corrupt, leading to widespread dissatisfaction. Outcome: The Samajwadi Party (SP), led by Akhilesh Yadav, capitalized on this dual anti-incumbency and secured a landslide victory, winning 224 out of 403 seats. The BSP’s seat tally fell drastically from 206 in the previous election to just 80. Analysis: The two-fold anti-incumbency sentiment drove voters towards the SP, which promised better governance and a new approach, highlighting the significant impact of such dissatisfaction on election results. 3. Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections (2016) Context: The AIADMK, led by J. Jayalalithaa, faced significant anti-incumbency due to issues like floods mismanagement, power cuts, and corruption. Local AIADMK MLAs were also criticized for their performance, contributing to a strong anti-incumbency wave. Outcome: Despite the anti-incumbency, the AIADMK managed to retain power, but with a reduced majority, winning 136 out of 234 seats. The DMK, which capitalized on the anti-incumbency sentiment, improved its performance significantly, winning 89 seats compared to its previous 23. Analysis: Although AIADMK retained power, the strong anti-incumbency against both the party and local MLAs led to a significant swing in votes towards the DMK, showcasing the potential impact of dual dissatisfaction. 4. Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections (2018) Context: The BJP, led by Shivraj Singh Chouhan, had been in power for 15 years and faced significant anti-incumbency due to issues like farm distress, unemployment, and corruption. Local BJP MLAs were also seen as underperforming and disconnected from the electorate. Outcome: The Congress party capitalized on this dual anti-incumbency and won 114 out of 230 seats, just short of a majority but enough to form the government with support from independents. The BJP, despite its long-standing hold, was reduced to 109 seats. Analysis: The two-fold anti-incumbency significantly impacted the BJP’s performance, leading to a shift in voter sentiment towards the Congress, highlighting the electoral risks of prolonged dissatisfaction. Conclusion These case studies illustrate how two-fold anti-incumbency can dramatically reshape electoral outcomes in India. Voter dissatisfaction with both the ruling party and local MLAs creates a powerful impetus for change, often leading to significant shifts in political power. Political parties and candidates must address both governance issues and local concerns to mitigate the risks associated with dual anti-incumbency.

Tag: psephology

Two-Fold Anti-Incumbency: Lessons from Indian Electoral Politics

History of Gallup Polls in India