1. Why VCK Threatens to Abstain or Oppose PMK’s Entry
Ideological & Caste-Based Conflicts:
VCK, led by Thol Thirumavalavan, firmly opposes any alliance with parties like the BJP or PMK. Thirumavalavan has repeatedly said that VCK will stick to its principles and fight against communal forces and will only join an alliance that does not include these groups.
Historical Schisms:
The relationship between VCK (which focuses on Dalit issues) and PMK (which represents the Vanniyar community) has been troubled. There were severe caste clashes in 2012–13. In the past, VCK described PMK as responsible for encouraging violence related to caste and has consistently stated that it would not join any alliance including PMK.
Reaffirmed Stance:
In recent statements, Thirumavalavan declared that under no circumstances will VCK ally with either the BJP or PMK. He also emphasized that VCK has made a clear decision to pursue an alliance that excludes these parties.
2. How DMK Came Close to PMK—and the Fallout
Congress Outreach:
On June 27, the Tamil Nadu Congress chief Selvaperunthagai visited PMK founder S. Ramadoss unexpectedly. This visit sparked speculation that PMK might be courted as a potential member of the DMK-led front.
Signs of Internal PMK Rift:
Following this outreach, PMK President Anbumani Ramadoss accused DMK of trying to destabilize his party. He framed this move as part of a larger conspiracy. This reaction suggests that DMK’s outreach may be seen as opportunistic amid existing divisions within the PMK.
DMK Distancing Itself:
DMK has clarified that it was not directly involved in the Congress outreach. However, the final decision on alliance formation rests with Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, who must balance these complex political dynamics.
3. Why VCK Is Threatening to Abstain
Political Demarcation:
VCK’s opposition is not just a symbolic gesture. If DMK brings PMK into the alliance, VCK risks withdrawing its support or abstaining from crucial votes in the state assembly. This move could weaken DMK’s legislative majority and overall cohesion.
Negotiation Leverage:
By taking a hard stance, VCK gains significant leverage in upcoming seat-sharing talks. Thirumavalavan is making sure that the interests of Dalit-focused parties are not ignored, and any decision to include PMK might come with a price.
4. Implications of an Alliance Realignment
| Scenario | Outcome |
|---|---|
| PMK Joins DMK | VCK may abstain or exit, which could weaken DMK’s overall unity and trigger a backlash in the Dalit vote bank. |
| PMK Is Excluded | VCK is likely to remain in the alliance, ensuring strong Dalit support for DMK, while PMK may either go solo or align elsewhere. |
| PMK Leaves with BJP/AIADMK | VCK is unlikely to engage with AIADMK if PMK and BJP remain in the alliance. VCK has clearly ruled out any association involving either party, keeping its stand firm. This limits AIADMK’s options and helps DMK retain VCK’s loyalty. |
5. Strategic Context and Upcoming Elections
Market Slotting by Caste:
Tamil Nadu politics has long been about balancing different caste groups. VCK brings strong Dalit support, while PMK carries the Vanniyar vote. DMK might be tempted to include PMK to capture this group, but doing so risks alienating its core allies like VCK.
PMK’s Search for a Political Front:
After an underwhelming performance with the BJP in 2024, PMK is exploring its options—whether to join forces with DMK or return to an alliance with the NDA or AIADMK. However, VCK’s strict stance makes this decision even more challenging.
Alliance Positioning:
DMK has maintained that its alliances are based on shared ideology rather than mere convenience. Some DMK ministers have even stated that any opposition parties joining the alliance are doing so out of necessity rather than choice.
✅ Conclusion
Why VCK Rocks the Boat:
VCK’s firm refusal to align with PMK is rooted in past caste violence and deep ideological differences. This stance forces DMK to choose between maintaining a stable alliance with its Dalit-focused partner and expanding its base with support from the Vanniyar community.
DMK’s Balancing Act:
DMK is in a difficult position as it tries to expand its political front by engaging with PMK. However, it must carefully weigh the risk of upsetting VCK, which could undermine its legislative strength and credibility with its core supporters.
Next Moves:
Watch for the decisions from DMK’s central leadership, the outcome of seat-sharing talks with Congress and VCK, and PMK’s declaration of preference. The party must balance maintaining ideological integrity with the practical need for a broader coalition in upcoming elections.
Kalyan Chandra
Kalyan chandra is a political strategist, media and communication consultant with the expertise in public relations, marketing, political research, election campaign management, psephology and digital analytics. He focuses on strategic political consulting, offering services that include competitive research, public opinion collection, and digital media management. Kalyan has significantly contributed to successful campaigns across India with his meticulous approach and deep understanding of the political landscape.
