Bihar Assembly Elections 2020 – Exit & Post Polls Analysis

bihar 2020 assembly elections exit poll analysis trends

  • Almost all the surveys predict Mahagatbandhan has an edge over NDA in Bihar Elections.
  • The majority of people viewed Tejaswi Yadav as a potential face for Chief Ministership than Nithish Kumar.
  • The entire narrative has been changed in the last 30 days giving a better advantage to MGB.
  • LJP turned as costly for the electoral interests of NDA.
  • The expected vote share of LJP is 7-9% as per the surveys.  This is more than a 4-6% difference in the expected share between NDA & MGB.
  • This is another instance, after the Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Karnataka & Rajasthan, depicting the weakness of charismatic regional leadership in the BJP party. The same states gave a massive majority in parliament elections. People in the respective states are giving the mandate to non-BJP parties in assembly elections.
  • Surveys suggest that MGB got a fair share of votes in Youth at the surprise of BJP.
  • Political analysts say that migrant laborer displeasure on central and state governments covid 19 handling is visible in elections.
  • Surveys predict that left parties are likely to gain some pockets. Left is part of the Mahagatbandhan alliance in elections.
  • Nitish Kumar has confirmed to the Bihari people that this election would be his last attempt in marathon political career. He made this statement some hours before the final phase of elections. Political analysts opine that this statement was intended for damage control due to the insecurity and fear of failure.


Surveys NDA UPA LJP Others
Public Pulse 90-100 110-120 3-5 8-18
Times Now – Cvoter  116 120 1 6
Republic TV – Jan Ki Baath 91-117 118-138 5-8 3-6
Dainik Bhaskar 120-127 71-81 12-23 19-27
CNN News 18 – Chanakya  55 180 8
Poll of Polls 115 108 8 12