Dubbak By Election Results, Trends & Analysis

Dubbak/Dubbaka   Counting & Results Live Updates

• BJP won Dubbak with a very narrow margin of 0.70%.
• But we should note that the same BJP got 20% in the 2019 mp elections. 18% vote share increase in stupendous.
• News Channels reports that BJP won in Dubbak with an approximate majority of 1400 votes.
• Massive comeback for BJP. Big jolt for TRS.
• 23rd round: BJP is leading.
• 22nd round: BJP is leading with 400 plus votes.
• 21st round: BJP is leading.
• 20th round, BJP is leading.
• 19th round: TRS is leading with 400 plus votes.
• 17th & 18th round changed the equations. TRS got a good majority in these rounds.
• 16th round: TRS  is leading with  749 votes.
• 15th round: TRS is leading with 900 plus votes.
• 14th round: TRS is leading.
• 13th round: TRS is leading.
• 12th round voting status: INC – 2080 BJP -1997 TRS – 1900
• Congress got the lead in the 12th round.
• BJP got 200 votes majority in the 11th round.
• TRS got an edge in the 10th round.
• BJP Got a 1k majority in the 9th round.
  BJP got the upper hand in the 8th round with 620 votes majority
  After 9 rounds, BJP is leading with 4200 plus votes.
• 8th round status : BJP: 3116 TRS: 2498
• BJP got the majority in the 8th round.
• TRS is leading in the 7th round.
• TRS gained in 6th round with 300 plus majority.
• BJP is leading with 3000 plus votes. The fifth round is done
• BJP is leading with 2600 plus votes. The fourth round is done.
• BJP is leading, as of now 3rd round, with 1295 votes.
• BJP is leading in the 2nd round, with 1135 votes.
• BJP is leading in the first round, dubbak town.
• BJP  is leading in postal ballots.
• Counting Will be started at 08:00 am
• Chanakya Today predicts BJP win in Dubbaka.
• Aaraa, Hyderabad based political consulting firm, predicts TRS win with a margin of 4-5% vote share against BJP.
• Till now, more than 50 thousand people visited my website to know the latest updates on dubbak election verdict.
• I have Predicted thirty thousand majority for TRS.
• A huge number of BJP supporters opposed my prediction and they are expecting a comfortable victory for BJP.
• Political laboratory, Hyderabad-based election consulting startup, predicts an easy win for BJP.

Dubbak Exit Poll Analysis

(updated on 06:45 pm, 09/11/2020)

• Chanakya Today predicts BJP win in Dubbaka.
• Aaraa, Hyderabad based political consulting firm, predicts TRS win with a margin of 4-5% vote share against BJP.
• TRS is likely to win in Dubbak with a good majority. 
• Based on our prediction, the majority will be 30,000 votes approximately.
• BJP is likely to be in 2nd position surpassing INC.
• INC will be reduced to 3rd position, unlike 2nd position in 2018 assembly election results.
• The Congress campaign was very productive initially. But, however, the narrative was changed in the last 10 days and people started seeing BJP as the only alternative for TRS.
• Media which is sympathetic to the ruling party started projecting that the entire battle is in between TRS & BJP.
• Political analysts say the TRS move of sidelining the Congress party as an active player in this by-election is strategic and tactical by considering long-term interests. 
• Huge num of stalwarts from BJP and INC canvassed in dubbak constituency. They have dedicated all the existing resources in Dubbak.
• Fake video (depicting Srinivasa Reddy is about to join TRS)  which widely circulated in social media and WhatsApp has done enough damage for the electoral interests of the Congress party. 
• Reports say Congress party cadre is also unhappy about allocating ticket to the candidate who was active in TRS causing ignoring party loyalists.
• BJP is likely to gain in some pockets of dubbak town.
• BJP is likely to increase the vote share in rural areas too.
• We need to remember that BJP got the upper hand in the Narsingi segment in the 2019 parliament elections. It will be repeated this time also.
• Though Raghu Nandan Rao is able to manage in accelerating his personal charisma among the voters, there was no massive intensity of anti-incumbency.
• TRS has always an upper hand over other parties in poll management.
• The ruling party performs better in poll management when it comes to assembly elections. Things may differ in parliament elections.
• We have collected inputs and feedback from multiple trusted sources in Dubbak. 
• We also analyzed booth wise potentiality of all the three main parties. 
• We have done in-depth research by studying the dynamics of the voting pattern of various elections in the Dubbak constituency since 2014.
• We ignored the voting pattern before the 2014 elections, as we thought that it was irrelevant and political dynamics have been changed because of the developments like the vanishing of the TDP party. 
• We did not do direct surveys for collecting the information.

Polling  Day  Updates 

• 07:00 pm: The election commission is yet to announce the final figures of polling.
• 07:00 pm: The poll percentage was 82%.
• 06:00 pm: The polling percentage reaches  80%.
• 03:00 pm: The polling percentage reaches 71%.
• 02:00 pm: The polling percentage reaches 50%.
• 12:30 pm: The polling percentage reaches 42%.
• 11:00 am: The polling percentage reaches 34.33%
• 10:15 am: The polling percentage reaches 15%.
• 10:00 am: Polling is peaceful as of now.
• 10:am: In 2019 parliament elections, dubbak assembly segment recorded 72.69% voting with 1,43,902 polled votes.
• 10:am: In 2018 assembly elections, dubbak assembly segment recorded 89.85% voting with 1,64,281 polled votes.
• 09:00 am: There are more than one lakh ninety thousand registered voters in dubbaka constituency.
• 07:00 am: More than 1000 corona patients are likely to vote.

Pre Poll Analysis (updated on 20/09/2020) 

Why the By-Election is very tough for Congress & BJP 

• 2019 election booth wise results give crucial insights into why this election is very tough for opposition parties Congress & BJP.
• TRS performed very well in the 2019 elections by keeping stronghold in 257 booths.
• BJP shows some impact in the Narsingi division of Dubbak.
• Congress party performance was limited to just 60 booths where it got 2nd position.
• There were almost 50-60 booths where the margin between BJP and Congress was narrow.
• In 2019, Raghu Nandan Rao has contested as an MP candidate from the Medak MP constituency. Dubbak is also a part of the same Medak parliament constituency.
• He secured 29546 votes from the same division. However, in the 2018 dubbak assembly elections, he got 3rd position with 22, 595 votes.
• Usually, the ruling party performs very well in by-elections. Kurnool by-election in Andhra Pradesh state is a perfect case study to be analyzed where the results were reversed in the 2019 assembly elections.
• The combined vote share of BJP + Congress never crossed 36% since 2014.
• The combined vote share of BJP + Congress never crossed 30% in the last ( 2018 MP, 2018 assembly & 2019 MP) three elections.
• Most likely, 2019 results to be replicated with minor changes in vote sharing between BJP & Congress.
• Our analysis has based on in-depth research on various election results of the Dubbak division since 2014. We affirm that we did not do any field-level research.

Parties Performance in Dubbak Boothwise – 2019 election results 

Dubbak/Dubbaka segment results – 2019 parliament elections

Article Last Updated: September 20th, 2020 

Kalyan Chandra

Kalyan chandra is a political strategist, media and communication consultant with the expertise in public relations, marketing, political research, election campaign management, psephology and digital analytics. He focuses on strategic political consulting, offering services that include competitive research, public opinion collection, and digital media management. Kalyan has significantly contributed to successful campaigns across India with his meticulous approach and deep understanding of the political landscape.

 info@kalyanchandra.com  https://kalyanchandra.com